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Apple down, BlackBerry up: The new normal?

April 1, 2013: 12:38 PM ET

BlackBerry's Z10 may not look that much different from Apple's iPhone. But the two stocks are moving in opposite directions.

The second quarter is looking a lot like the first quarter for two smartphone makers who share their corporate monikers with the name of a fruit.

Apple (AAPL) fell nearly 2% Monday. The iEverything maker's shares were down 16% in the first three months of the year, making them one of the worst performers in the S&P 500.

Meanwhile, BlackBerry (BBRY) was up more than 5% Monday. The stock gained more than 20% in the first quarter on hopes that the company's new Z10 smartphone will help boost BlackBerry's sagging sales and profits.

Will this trend continue for the foreseeable future? Several traders on StockTwits feel that there has been a shift in investor mentality. Apple may have a hard time moving higher until the company can prove that it does have a hot new product in its arsenal and not just incremental upgrades to its iPhone and iPad lines.

Without proper marketing, any smart phone or tablet is a commodity. $AAPL hasn't had a decent commercial campaign in years.

The Apple ads have been lackluster lately. I wonder if that will change now that Scott Trattner, the guy who was responsible for many of Apple's successful ads is back at the agency that works with Apple. Trattner had left the Apple agency last summer for a short stint at an agency that works with top Apple rival Samsung.

There's no mystery to $AAPL's continued selloff. The World's largest holding that took years to build takes a long time to unwind. Bearish

Very good point. With so many big institutions amassing gargantuan stakes in Apple, they may still have a lot to sell. That said, at least one trader feels that the sell-off can't last much longer.

$AAPL Wow. This is absolutely amazing. Tempted to go long soon.

I agree. Apple may no longer be a Wall Street stud. It may be a classic Missouri stock now and has to show investors that there is a legitimate reason to get excited again.

But at 10 times fiscal 2013 earnings estimates and with $137 billion in cash, it seems like Apple is a relatively safe stock at this point that potentially has huge upside. If it puts that cash to use with an increased dividend, that could juice returns. And Apple could really climb sharply if it finally shows the world a new product category like the long-rumored iTV.

New: Apple and BlackBerry are two of CNNMoney's 10 Hot Stocks that readers love

The resurgence of BlackBerry is proof positive that a stock can skyrocket when expectations are low. Sure, BlackBerry may finally have put fears about the company running out of cash in the rear view mirror. But many investors are still betting against the stock. It's heavily shorted and that could keep the stock from going that much higher.

$BBRY Looks as if a lot of shorts are bailing now that upgrades have started Bullish

$BBRY individual longs will not do anything to combat the shorts. we need that flood of institutional money. Bullish

Exactly. BlackBerry's latest earnings report may have scared some, but not all, shorts away. But for BlackBerry to keep going higher for the long haul, large investors are probably going to have to scoop up the stock. I'm not sure that's happening.

Related: Stock market 'leaders' are really losers

If anything, it seems that the so-called smart money flowing out of Apple may be going into Android leader Google (GOOG) ... not the company that some people still stubbornly call Research in Motion. ("His momma named him Clay, I'mma call him Clay.")

$BBRY of course well all claim to be buying a Z10 while grabbing a Galaxy 3 for under $100. Own the stock, not the phone 🙂

Too funny. BlackBerry needs consumers to stop buying Apple and Samsung phones and buy more Z10s. Hopefully some BlackBerry bulls will eventually want to buy the new phone. If BlackBerry shareholders aren't interested in the Z10, it's hard to imagine that the stock will be able to hold on to these gains.

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Paul Lamonica
Paul R. La Monica
Assistant Managing Editor, CNNMoney

Paul R. La Monica is an assistant managing editor at CNNMoney. He is the author of the site's daily column, The Buzz, and also tweets throughout the day about the markets and economy @LaMonicaBuzz. La Monica also oversees the site's economic, markets and technology coverage.

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