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Best of StockTwits: Without a Netflix

May 31, 2012: 2:25 PM ET

Bring back Qwikster? Netflix (NFLX) hit a new 52-week low Thursday and some traders still think it could get worse. And one investor isn't sure why Lionsgate (LGF), the studio behind "The Hunger Games" should be up after reporting a loss.

ReformedBroker: It was so obvious too, how could anyone have held this post-EPS shock? RT @SlopeOfHope: Breathtaking: Netflix down 80% in ten months. $NFLX

howardlindzon: Trying to reach Whitney Tilson to tell him he is getting destroyed in $NFLX but seems his $RIMM phone is broken too.

Ha! Remember when Tilson and Netflix CEO Reed Hastings had dueling op-eds on Seeking Alpha about whether to short the stock or not? Looks like Tilson should have stayed short.

mosesli12: $NFLX 21.9 P/E still a pretty cheap stock BUT their profit margin declined almost 9% since 2011. I see zero growth potential, could be a RIM

I think it may be a bit hyperbolic to suggest that Netflix is the next RIMM (RIMM). But yes, the fundamentals are not promising. Also, a word of caution on that price-to-earnings ratio you're citing. It's trailing, i.e. it includes profits Netflix earned before it started to implode last summer. It's not nearly that cheap on a forward looking basis. Since Netflix is only expected to eke out a small profit this year, it is trading at nearly 800 times forecasts. Even using 2013 estimates, the P/E is still 30.

johnkelly: $LGF it's nearly impossible 2 give EBIDTA guidance. how can they possibly know how successful upcoming movies will be?

To be fair, it's not hard to figure out that "The Hunger Games" and "Breaking Dawn" will be big hits. Movies based on monstrously successful books that have a particular appeal to teen-aged girls is a sure-fire way to a box office smash these days, it seems.

But the problem with owning a studio is that marketing costs can be very expensive. And Lionsgate will now face pressure to build on its current success. So yes, predicting how successful all of your movies will be is not easy.  And for every hit like "The Avengers" there is also a "John Carter." Just ask Disney (DIS).

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