Best of StockTwits: Without a NetflixMay 31, 2012: 2:25 PM ET
Bring back Qwikster? Netflix (NFLX) hit a new 52-week low Thursday and some traders still think it could get worse. And one investor isn't sure why Lionsgate (LGF), the studio behind "The Hunger Games" should be up after reporting a loss.
Ha! Remember when Tilson and Netflix CEO Reed Hastings had dueling op-eds on Seeking Alpha about whether to short the stock or not? Looks like Tilson should have stayed short.
I think it may be a bit hyperbolic to suggest that Netflix is the next RIMM (RIMM). But yes, the fundamentals are not promising. Also, a word of caution on that price-to-earnings ratio you're citing. It's trailing, i.e. it includes profits Netflix earned before it started to implode last summer. It's not nearly that cheap on a forward looking basis. Since Netflix is only expected to eke out a small profit this year, it is trading at nearly 800 times forecasts. Even using 2013 estimates, the P/E is still 30.
To be fair, it's not hard to figure out that "The Hunger Games" and "Breaking Dawn" will be big hits. Movies based on monstrously successful books that have a particular appeal to teen-aged girls is a sure-fire way to a box office smash these days, it seems.
But the problem with owning a studio is that marketing costs can be very expensive. And Lionsgate will now face pressure to build on its current success. So yes, predicting how successful all of your movies will be is not easy. And for every hit like "The Avengers" there is also a "John Carter." Just ask Disney (DIS).