Stupid Stock Move of the Day! eBay down?May 30, 2012: 2:11 PM ET
Yes, a slowdown in Europe won't be great news for eBay (EBAY). But don't we already know that eBay, like nearly every consumer-centric company, will face economic headwinds? Isn't that already priced into the stock, which is trading at about 17 times 2012 earnings estimates --- roughly in line with this year's projected profit growth rate? I am not sure why eBay is down 4% Wednesday on heavy volume and no new news.
A guy going by the name of Trader Stewie (how's that novel coming along?) over on StockTwits wrote that research firm ITG/Majestic has a report out suggesting that eBay's Marketplace revenue in the second quarter is trending below consensus due to lower prices in Europe and currency risks. That makes sense. But the main selling point of eBay's stock for some time has been the much more rapidly growing payments business, not the "old" auctions site site that made eBay famous. Pez dispenser, anyone?
Sure, there is more competition in mobile payments. eBay's PayPal is a clear leader but it will face some serious challenges from the likes of Square, Facebook (FB) and Google (GOOG) -- not to mention credit card networks Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA). But eBay's payments revenues grew at a healthy 32% clip in the first quarter. As long as that growth doesn't slow materially, eBay is likely to be able to shrug off any Europe-related weakness.